Theresa May will today attempt to lay the blame for the deadlock between the UK and the EU at Brussels’ door, amid predictions that the prime minister will lose a Commons vote on her Brexit deal for a second time.
In a message to the EU during a speech in Grimsby, where 71% of residents voted to leave, May will say: “We are both participants in this process. The decisions that the EU makes over the next few days will have a big impact on the outcome of the vote.”
Following weeks of cautious optimism that the PM could get her deal through Parliament, “gloom reigns again” as efforts to secure EU concessions on the Irish border backstop flounder, says the Financial Times.
Attorney-General Geoffrey Cox appears likely to “get little out of Brussels on the backstop”, and “many of the 100 or so [Brexiteer] MPs look unlikely to shift in the PM’s direction” when they have their say next week, the newspaper reports.
Indeed, “few in government are confident of winning Tuesday’s vote”, agrees HuffPost’s Paul Waugh. Brexiteers “loathe the idea of being bounced at the last minute, so thoughts are turning to what happens straight after another defeat”, he adds.
What has May said will happen?
May has told the Commons that a defeat for her deal would result in two subsequent votes, on 13 and 14 March. The first vote would on whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal, and if MPs veto that option, they would then vote on whether the UK should apply for an extension to Article 50.
But according to The Times, the Government is now considering holding the potential second vote immediately after the first, on the same day, to minimise the appearance of instability.
As the no-deal vote looms ever larger, a May ally told the Daily Mail that a free vote is “inevitable”, because “whichever way you whipped it, it would split the party”.
The Daily Telegraph reports that Environment Secretary Michael Gove has warned that the Government would collapse if MPs were told how to vote by the Tory leadership.
How will the subsequent votes go?
A majority of MPs “will certainly vote against a ‘no deal’ Brexit in the vote pencilled in by the Government”, says the FT. But “the motion on whether the UK should pursue an Article 50 extension is more complex”, the newspaper adds.
Although it seems likely that most would want Article 50 extended, different groups of MPs might put down different amendments calling for extensions over different time periods - anywhere from two to 21 months. In that instance, there might not be a sufficient majority for any of the options to prevail, and even if MPs did agree, the EU would need to green light the extension too.
“The chances of the UK sliding into an accidental no deal on March 29 because of a stalemate over that issue - though very small - cannot be totally excluded,” says Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group consultancy firm.
What else could happen?
Remain-supporting cabinet ministers Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd and David Gauke are pressing May to commit herself to a series of “indicative votes” to see whether there is a parliamentary majority for any other Brexit outcome.
May “fears that the votes could pave the way for a Brexit that does not honour the referendum result”, says The Times. However, a senior government figure told the paper: “We can’t go back to Brussels unless we have something to go back with. The choice is to hold indicative votes - or have them imposed on us and lose control.”
In a letter to The Times, former Tory leader John Major called for a delay of “perhaps a year” to allow for a public consultation and more time to plan for a smooth exit from the EU.
Meanwhile, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has held talks with ex-Tory ministers Nick Boles and Sir Oliver Letwin, “who favour a closer, Norway-style relationship with the EU”, says the BBC.
That meeting prompted the Tory chief whip, Julian Smith, to warn MPs that if they vote down the deal and negotiations are extended, they risk ending up with a “softer Brexit”.
Speaking to the BBC’s Question Time programme, former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab said: “Are we going to effectively be put in the position that it’s either a bad deal or no Brexit? And, frankly, I think if there’s that kind of establishment stitch-up to try and frustrate the process of Brexit, there will be a day of reckoning with the voters, because I think the one thing people expect is to get Brexit done and dusted on 29 March.”
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